NEW POLLING THAT DEMOCRATS WON'T LOVE – OVERNIGHT:   Polling is now remarkably consistent, although specific numbers will differ slightly from poll to poll.  The Dems are down, dragged down by the president's low numbers, and the Republicans have "opportunity" flashed in their faces.  We hope they notice.  From Issues and Insights/TIPP: 

When it comes to the 2024 presidential election, Republicans are far more enthusiastic about former President Trump running again than Democrats are about President Biden gaining a second term, new data from the December I&I/TIPP Poll show. It’s yet another sign that, a mere 11 months into his term, Biden’s support remains surprisingly weak within his own party.

The I&I/TIPP Poll gave respondents the names of Trump and 15 other possible Republican candidates, asking “Who do you want to see run for president on the Republican ticket in 2024?” We asked the same question for the Democrats. We wrote about those results last week here and here.

In our poll, 24% of those queried in whatever party said they wanted President Trump to run again, while 22% said they wanted Biden to do so.

But the apparent closeness of the support for the two possible candidates may be deceptive. A closer look at the data shows a wide disparity in actual support for the two candidates within their own parties.

As the poll numbers clearly show, Trump’s support within the Republican Party is far stronger than Biden’s within the Democratic Party. Among Republicans, 60% said they wanted Trump to run again for president in 2024. In contrast, just 37% of Democrats wanted Biden to run again in three years, a devastating sign of Biden’s weakening support within his own party.

Among independents, 17% express support for a Trump run in 2024, compared to just 8% for Biden, a worrisome data point for Democrats hoping to attract swing voters in coming elections.

All these data come from December’s I&I/TIPP Poll of 1,013 registered voters. The poll was conducted online from Dec. 1-4 by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, I&I’s polling partner, with a margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points.

One significant factor jumps out from the Trump data: None of the 15 other potential Trump challengers listed had double-digit support, so Trump has a large early edge for 2024. Former Vice President Mike Pence got closest, with 8% support, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (6%), and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (5%), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (3%), and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik and Florida Sen. Marco (both at 2%).

They were followed by Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Florida Sen. Rick Scott, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, and Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, all at 1%. “Other” received 8%, while “not sure” got 29%.

COMMENT:  Look, it's only 2021.  The presidential election is three years off.  That's about 400 lifetimes in politics.  The numbers we see aren't shocking, but today's polls should be taken only as early indications of trends, and as fun.

We should be focusing more on next year's midterms.  Republicans have their best opportunity in modern history to send the Democrats walking back to their single-sex restrooms.  Seizing that opportunity will be our side's greatest task, and most challenging one.

December 13, 2021